Power Analysis: How Primož Roglič Sealed His 4th Vuelta a España Victory

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La Vuelta a España always offers up something different. Whether it is a breakout star like Pablo Castrillo or a surprise GC winner like Sepp Kuss, the Spanish grand tour is often one of the most exciting races of the year.

That was never more apparent than when Adam Yates soloed to win stage 9 of this year’s Vuelta in Grenada. The GC was flipped on its head, and it was Ben O’Connor’s race to lose. Fast forward to stage 18, and Primož Roglič has closed the gap to O’Connor. The Australian only had a 5-second lead in GC heading into the finale of La Vuelta, but Roglič is not known to be the most consistent finisher.

With Enric Mas and Richard Carapaz less than 2 minutes behind in the GC, it was anyone’s race to win. The action that followed might not have lived up to everyone’s expectations, but we cannot gloss over the fact that Roglič destroyed everyone in stage 19, and Eddie Dunbar did the climb of his life in stage 20.

Up first was the climb of Alto de Moncalvillo. It was an uno puerto stage, a colloquial term meaning a stage that only features one significant climb: the summit finish. Thus, the peloton arrives at the base of the final climb with fresh legs — as fresh as they can be after a few hours (and over two weeks) of racing. Uno puerto stages are nearly power tests, especially when the final climb features steep gradients above 9 percent.

When the draft is minimal, and the legs are fresh, it is every rider for themselves on the final climb. Just as they did in stage 11, Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe sprinted into the base of the Alto de Moncalvillo with Roglič in tow.

At 8.6km with an average gradient of 8.9 percent, it was the perfect climb for Roglič, who excels in steep, 20-minute efforts. As soon as the gradient hit 10 percent, Florian Lipovitz let go of Roglič’s wheel (or, he simply couldn’t follow), and the Slovenian rode off into the distance. Roglič went on to win the stage by 46 seconds ahead of David Gaudu and Mattias Skjelmose.

O’Connor struggled massively on the climb and shipped almost 2 minutes to Roglič, who had just done one of his best performances ever. For reference, Tadej Pogačar did ~7w/kg for 40 minutes in this year’s Tour de France, setting a new bar for professional cycling performance. On stage 19 of this year’s Vuelta, Roglič did ~7w/kg for nearly 24 minutes on Alto de Moncavallio.

The Red Bull-bora-Hansgrohe leadout train was absolutely ridiculous, as we can see in Pavel Sivakov’s power data. The Frenchman only stayed with the lead group for 1.5km, but he was pushing well over 7w/kg just to stay in the draft. Of course, Roglič slowed down later on the climb, but the damage had already been done. All of the other riders have been forced so far over their limit that it was impossible for them to recover.

Most WorldTour riders have a peak 5-minute power of 7.5-8w/kg, which meant they were almost doing a 5-minute power test at the beginning of a 25-minute climb. Talk about horrible pacing strategies that will make you blow up. Over the entirety of the climb, Sivakov averaged 6.4w/kg for 26 minutes and still finished more than 2 minutes behind Roglič.

Roglič – Alto de Moncavallio

Time: 23:50

Estimated Average Power: ~445w (7w/kg)

Sivakov: 26:06 at 441w (6.4w/kg)

First 1.5km of the climb: 3:51 at 512w (7.4w/kg)

The final mountain stage of La Vuelta contained over 5,000 meters of climbing in 172 km, setting the stage for a huge shakeup in the general classification…and that’s how it finished. The stage was set, but no one showed up, and the top six in GC remained unchanged after the climb to Picón Blanco.

But there was a huge performance that almost no one saw coming. Seven seconds ahead of the GC group, Eddie Dunbar came roaring across the finish line to win the biggest stage in his career. The Irishman did the climb of his life, producing ~6.4w/kg for 25 minutes after an extremely taxing stage.

Sivakov, for example, spent more than 4,600 kJs in the first four hours and two minutes of the stage. That was before the summit finish at Picón Blanco, and the Frenchman went on the attack. With 30km to go, Sivakov countered a move by Mikel Landa to go solo, and he immediately got out of the peloton’s sight.

This effort by Sivakov wins the award for “Most Impressive Attack That Didn’t Lead to a Good Result.” At the end of the stage, Sivakov wasn’t even in the top 10 — he finished in 12th, nearly a minute and a half behind Dunbar. This, despite averaging almost 400w (5.8w/kg) for an hour and 18 minutes at the end of the 20th stage of La Vuelta.

Sivakov – Solo Attack on Stage 20

Time: 1:17:56

Average Power: 394w (5.7w/kg)

Peak 10-minute Power: 450w (6.5w/kg)

Nearly half of Picón Blanco had passed by without an attack from the GC group. Sivakov still had a 43-second gap when Dunbar launched up the left side of the road, and no one responded. The Irishman caught Sivakov 1.5km later and then went solo with 2.9km to go.

The rest of the GC group traded attacks behind, but no one could catch Dunbar, who earned his second stage win at La Vuelta. Mas finished second, and Roglič was third, but one of the biggest surprises was Urko Berrade in fifth. The 26-year-old on Equipo Kern Pharma had just won stage 18, and now he was fighting with the best GC riders in the race.

Dunbar – Picón Blanco

Time: 25:37

Estimated Average Power: 365w (~6.4w/kg)

Burrade: 25:23 at 412w (~6.1w/kg)

First 1.5km of the climb: 3:51 at 512w (7.4w/kg)

Stefan Küng beat Roglič by 30 seconds in stage 21’s time trial, and with that, the Slovenian sewed up his fourth Vuelta a España. Skjelmose put enough time into David Gaudu to finish fifth overall, but that was the only change in the top 10 of the general classification. Despite its meager end, this year’s Vuelta had more than its fair sharing of thrilling storylines.

Roglič won his fourth overall title, while Wout Van Aert won three stages in the first 10 days of La Vuelta. Pavel Bittner earned his first-ever grand tour stage win, and so did Pablo Castrillo, Urko Berrade, Stefan Küng, and Eddie Dunbar. Castrillo and Dunbar actually won two stages each. Jay Vine was in a neck brace a few months ago, but now he’s just won the mountains jersey at La Vuelta a España.

Power Analysis data courtesy of Strava

Strava sauce extension 

Riders: 
Pavel Sivakov
Urko Berrade